Division and playoff predictions

Posted Sunday, September 7, 2008

Unlike some I've ingeniously put this off until now, like when a fantasy league waits till the last day possible to draft, so I can factor in the end of hold-outs (Steven Jackson, Ryan Grant, Jason Peters) or the loss of huge stars (Osi Umenyiora...Um, Kevin Curtis? I'm blanking).

Ok, so really I was just lazy, and to be honest didn't really get football fever until just now, 11 or so hours before Brett Favre takes the field in Miami to REALLY kick-off the season (not to say that the Giants/Redskins showdown on Thursday night wasn't an instant classic...BARF.)

So, now that it's here, let's see how "it" will turn out in this reporter's opinion.

AFC EAST

New England Patriots 12-4

Buffalo Bills 10-6

New York Jets 6-10

Miami Dolphins 5-11

I feel so dirty after writing that.

I really wish I could see things the way some fans seem to, or at least want to, and say that the Patriots dynasty is over and they will begin a decline this year. But even though I don't see them fighting for perfection again this year  (I see the Chargers ending that "run" at home week 6) there's no doubt in my mind they will win the East with relative ease. Some may take issue with the Jets not being .500 but what many fail to realize is that yes, even though Brett Favre used to get some extra wins for Packer teams with mediocre overall talent during the Mike Sherman era, this is not the weak NFC North he's playing in. He's facing the Pats and up and coming Bills four times, the Chargers at Qualcomm, and the Seahawks also on the road. Those games alone foretell probably at best a 1-5 record, and there's some other tough games on the schedule beyond that.

AFC NORTH

Cleveland Browns 10-6

Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7

Cincinnati Bengals 7-9

Baltimore Ravens 4-12

The Steelers offensive line has some big questions yet to be answered after it was consistently overpowered last season. Ben Roethlisberger will keep making fantasy owners happy but I expect a drop-off in the run game to open the door for the Browns to take the division crown. Chad Ocho Cinco and the Bengals will continue to waste their offensive talent thanks once again to a below average defense. The Ravens QB situation is one of the uglier ones in the league and they will not definitively find their franchise guy this season.

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars 12-4

Indianapolis Colts 10-6

Houston Texans 8-8

Tennessee Titans 5-11

The Jaguars are ready. Ready to leapfrog the Colts as the annual kings of the division. I don't quite see the Colts as on the decline as many do, it's more about the Jaguars and Texans being on the rise. Lots of young talent on both sides of the ball that could make them the new Colts or Patriots, competing for a conference title every year.

This division is as tough as any in the NFL. The Titans, being the weakest link, will suffer the most because of that and Vince Young will continue to struggle this year, perhaps ultimately leading to him being replaced a little down the road.

AFC West

San Diego Chargers 14-2

Denver Broncos 9-7

Oakland Raiders 6-10

Kansas City Chiefs 2-14

Yes, the Chargers are that good. Philip Rivers, LT, Chris Chambers, a rising star in Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates, along with a suffocating defense led by Shawne Merriman whose playing-on-one-leg-if-I-have-to mentality is sure to inspire teammates. This team is the primary Super Bowl contender in the league and at the very least they will dominate in the regular season. The rest of the division is...blah. Broncos could have a decent shot at a wildcard.

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys 13-3

New York Giants 9-7

Philadelphia Eagles 8-8

Redskins 6-10

Why some people are picking the Eagles to win their division this year or go the Super Bowl is completely beyond me. Donovan McNabb has not played a full season since 2003, Brian Westbrook technically never has, the receivers are still garbage and Kevin Curtis is hurt. The defense has some young stars but is still not on a level close to what the Cowboys, who will win the division by a comfortable margin, will put on the field. Oh, and they have Tony Romo and TO. The Giants will have a chance at the playoffs but the loss of Osi Umenyiora, even if Justin Tuck steps up the whole year, will take it's toll late in the year when they simply cannot generate pressure and cover up their deficiencies in pass coverage like they did last year.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers 10-6

Minnesota Vikings 10-6

Detroit Lions 8-8

Chicago Bears 6-10

The Packers win the tiebreaker with a better division record. The Vikings added Jared Allen and Madieu Williams who will miss a few games, but they still have a somewhat weak secondary. Aaron Rodgers will impress, and might even have a shot at the pro bowl considering the immense attention he'll be getting the whole year. The Lions could possibly find their way into the upper half of this division and  wildcard spot, but we say that every year. Their offense is loads better than the Bears but their defense is loads worse. Still, Jon Kitna is the best quarterback in this division and Kyle Orton just might be the worst. The Bears continue to field a horrible offense devoid of any real playmakers unless you count Devin Hester who is completely unproven as a receiver. Their defense may rebound if healthy, but it won't be enough without someone like Thomas Jones or a first half of 2006 Rex Grossman to put points on the board.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-6

New Orleans Saints 8-8

Carolina Panthers 5-11

Atlanta Falcons 4-12

With Brett Favre gone and not in Tampa Bay like we all originally thought he'd be, Jeff Garcia is the elder statesmen of the NFC at QB and could have a Favre-esque season for the Bucs this year. My vote for most overrated team by the media this off-season goes to the Saints, just edging out Philly. I don't know if it's just hangover from the "everybody love the Saints because of Katrina" thing that happened a couple years back or what, but this team is not going to be an NFC Championship contender. Drew Brees is great, Reggie Bush and their defense are not.

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks 11-5

St. Louis Rams 10-6

Arizona Cardinals 7-9

San Francisco 49ers 5-11

The Seahawks are a solid all-around team, it would have been nice to add a playmaker at receiver but their offense was already pretty good last year. The Rams have a healthy Steven Jackson and will make a run at the division title. The Cardinals will continue to be wasted potential and I don't know where JT O'Sullivan came from for the Niners, but I don't expect him to be in the picture long. San Francisco will continue to search for a real successor to Jeff Garcia after this year.

PLAYOFFS

WILDCARD WEEKEND

AFC Byes: Chargers, Patriots

Games: Jaguars over Bills (wildcard), Colts (wildcard) over Browns

NFC Byes: Cowboys, Seahawks

Games: Buccaneers over Vikings, Packers over Rams

DIVISIONALS

AFC: Chargers over Colts, Jaguars over Patriots

NFC: Cowboys over Packers, Bucs over Seahawks

CHAMPIONSHIPS

AFC: Jaguars over Chargers

NFC: Buccaneers over Cowboys

SUPER BOWL: Buccaneers over Jaguars

Yeah, that's right, Buccaneers to take the Super Bowl IN Tampa. I don't know if a team has ever won it in their hometown but it will happen this year. BANK ON IT.

If Favre starts, Packers will lose Rodgers

Posted Monday, August 4, 2008

Either the biggest twist yet or not surprising at all depending on how you view the situation, the Green Bay Packers now plan to welcome back with open arms once-retired-but-not-really quarterback Brett Favre to training camp on Monday.

So what does this mean for the Packers?

Well, first and foremost it means that Favre aboslutely can bully whoever he wants to in Green Bay, contrary to what was believed when the news first broke that Favre had an "itch" to play.

GM Ted Thompson, head coach Mike McCarthy and Packers president Mark Murphy have proven that even the most ambitious leadership cannot overcome the unhealthy crush Packers nation has on Favre.

But perhaps most importantly it means that if Favre wins the job from Rodgers this year, when 2010 rolls around the Packers will once again be in the process of grooming a new successor for Favre, most likely rookie Brian Brohm.

That's because Rodgers will probably have had enough of the Packers and their fans; the same fans that greeted him with a mixture of boos and cheers at the Packers Family Fun Night scrimmage on Saturday.

Maybe Rodgers will understand McCarthy's situation. After all, it's not easy to face a state full of cheeseheads and say "no" to another Favre campaign in 2008.

But even if he does, the chance to play in a new city where he will not have the shadow of Favre's career and reputation hanging over him will be too much to pass up.

If Rodgers, who figures to have the advantage with the coaching staff at this juncture, is able to fend off Favre for the starting spot, it means the Packers will probably have to either cut loose or trade Favre at the start of the season to avoid putting Rodgers in an even more difficult position with Favre watching his every success or mistake from the bench.

Various reporters on Sunday suggested Favre told a source close to him that he would possibly be willing to commit to at least two more seasons in Green Bay, something that if true certainly comes close to guaranteeing Rodgers' departure after the 2009 season.

Favre has also made it clear he has no desire to be a clipboard-holder this season and with his ego it's unlikely he would be willing to admit that he was simply beaten out for the starting job fair and square, even if it's clear to everyone else. In his mind, and the minds of many others, this is not a competition.

But to Aaron Rodgers it certainly is, and if the Packers know what's best for them, they'll be rooting for him.

Green and Gold not Favre's true colors

Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Earlier this week, over a hundred Green Bay Packers fans gathered at Lambeau Field to rally in support of Brett Favre.

And why wouldn't they? Isn't this the same Brett Favre they have watched break records, win a championship and provide them with lifetimes worth of memorable moments (most good but some bad)?

The same one they have put up on a pedestal and built up a reputation for that Ghandi, George Washington and Bill Brasky combined probably aren't deserving of?

Problem is, even though they'd love nothing more than to see Favre line up behind center against the intimidating division rival Vikings in week one,  they probably know in their heart of hearts that he is in the wrong here.

Favre sat down for an interview with Greta Van Susteren of Fox News this past week hoping to clear the air and give a boost to his now questionable reputation. He did the opposite.

He exacerbated the situation probably beyond repair and if the majority of Packer fans were thinking rationally, he'd have done the same to his relationship with them.

Sure, he said some of the right things in regards to his time in Green Bay. "Always will be a Packer". "Nothing like (playing at Lambeau)".

What he didn't do was acknowledge the unbelievably unfair and impossible situation he has put the Packers in. Or explain the reason he flip-flopped back into retirement in April when head coach Mike McCarthy and General Manager Ted Thompson were ready to let him back as the starter for 2008.

Beyond a brief and vague reference, he neglected to mention the fact that he has probably sentenced  new starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers to even worse scrutiny than he was already going to suffer just from being Favre's successor. How long until we hear the first "bring back Favre" chants at Lambeau after a Rodgers pick?

He also let a damning piece of information slip when he discussed offensive line coach James Campen's visits to him in the months following Favre's retirement. Campen was sent on several occasions to Favre's home in Mississippi as an intermediary from the Packers.

"(Campen) says, 'You know, I know they told you they're moving on and playing there's not an option," Favre remembered Campen saying. "Playing here in Green Bay is not an option, which that's what they want. They want to move on. But I'm telling you, if you reinstate or you force their hand, back them in a corner, they feel like they have no other option, they're going to accept you back.'"

How very considerate of Favre to reveal that Campen had tried to help him get what he wanted; a return to Green Bay despite McCarthy and Thompson's wishes that he stay out of football. I'm sure Packers management will be thrilled with Campen after hearing this info. Apparently Favre intends to derail more careers than his own.

So after all of this drama, what have we learned about Favre? That when he finally works up the guts to speak for himself instead of letting his agent, brother, mother, or hometown beat-writer/friend do the talking, he goes to a news anchor that is friends with his wife so she can lob him softballs? Well, yes.

But most of all we learned that not only is Favre unworthy of his shining reputation, he's an inconsiderate schmuck.

Favre obviously isn't concerned about his reputation, but some in the Packers organization seem to be. Favre says McCarthy told him that if he comes back with another team and isn't the player he used to be, it could badly damage his legacy.

Could he really do a better job of that on the field than he already has off of it?

Young's admission no surprise

Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Several days ago when the news broke that Vince Young told an NFL.com reporter that he nearly retired after his rookie season, many people, including flustered Titans fans, were shocked.

Color me the opposite.

Of the top twenty quarterbacks ranked by passer rating in 2007, only one started his entire rookie year, while another came close. Peyton Manning started all 16 games, while Ben Roethlisberger started 13.

But considering Manning is bound to be considered one of the greatest players of all-time when he retires, and NFL experts had to reach back to Dan Marino's rookie campaign to find someone to compare Roethlisberger to, it's pretty obvious those two are an exception to the rule.

The rule of course being that rookie quarterbacks thrown into the mix right away, are generally less successful than those who hold a clipboard for the first season or two. Or three.

Young started 13 games his rookie year, playing in 15. He won the NFL offensive rookie of the year award, despite being a terrible passer that season. He rushed for nearly 600 yards and 12 touchdowns.

So he played well by most people's standards - why almost walk off into the sunset after just one year?

"It was crazy being an NFL quarterback. It wasn’t fun anymore," Young told the reporter, "All of the fun was out of it. All of the excitement was gone. All I was doing was worrying about things."

It's not often you hear a quarterback complain about his job not being fun enough. That's because most are allowed to mature as players and people before being shoved into the spotlight, and asked to play possibly the most important position in sports.

Some others, like Manning and Roethlisberger, are good enough that it doesn't matter when they start. Young is not in that class.

The message to NFL franchise should be clear; Yes, it's hard to hold off on getting your new rookie quarterback some starts. It's boring for fans to wait a year or more, and yes, in some rare cases a rookie starter makes sense.

But in most, you're better off leaving them on the sidelines for a little while. Maybe then they won't be contemplating retirement a year out of college.

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Free Agency grades

by John Daly

Posted Tuesday, March 4th, 2008

So the season has ended, news has been slow and even if it wasn't, how do you follow one of the most historic upsets in sports history? With some big names possibly looking for new homes it might not be as hard as you expect. Here's RZR's take on some of the first day's events.

Packers trade DT Corey Williams to Cleveland for a second round pick

Any time you give up an established veteran who has 14 sacks over the last two seasons in exchange for a draft pick, you're certainly not guaranteed to get equal return in the deal. That being said, Green Bay was simply not willing to pay Tommy Kelly money to keep Williams, and rightfully so. Despite his uneventful rookie year, the Packers believe that Justin Harrell will be able to vill the void left by Williams next season. On the Browns' side, there's no doubt it's a great addition.

However, as it is now, Cleveland will not be picking until the third round in April's draft since they traded this years first round as part of a deal to move up for Brady Quinn last season. They were rumored to be hoping for Derek Anderson to sign elsewhere so they could collect a first and third rounder from his new team, but Anderson signed a new multi-year deal with Cleveland. Overall though, it's a nice move for Cleveland that gives them the best DT on the market in exhange for a pick that is never guaranteed to work out.

Packers grade: B+

Browns grade: B

Jets send Jonathan Vilma to New Orleans for a conditional fourth rounder (potentially a third rounder depending on his play in 2008)

Vilma is a very talented player who admittedly was probably not in the best situation for him with the Jets. If he lives up to his status as a first round pick, this deal is obviously a huge steal for New Orleans, and even if he doesn't, they didn't lose much.

Despite Vilma having lots of potential, there wasn't much more the Jets could get in return for him. The fact is he has not produced in his career so far, and nobody is going to give up a first, second or third for a player as unproven as Vilma.

Saints grade: B+

Jets grade: B-

Vikings sign safety Madieu Williams at 6 years, $33 million

The consensus is that the Vikings overpaid for Williams, and that's probably true. But with the market the way it is, teams will have to shell out more cash than in the past for an up-and-comer like Williams. Playing in the Bengals' atrocious secondary, Williams is a playmaker that can rush the pass well. He's nothing special in coverage and tends to give up some big plays, but nonetheless was the best option for the Vikings here.

Still, 33 million for a guy that is not actually that big of an upgrade over Dwight Smith makes this one a bit questionable.

Grade: C+

Falcons lock up Turner for six years at $34.5 million

Unlike Williams, Turner is worth every penny. Running behind LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego, Turner showed an excellent speed and power combo comparable to Tomlinson's. Despite probably being good enough to start for years now, he hasn't taken too much punishment as he has not gone over 80 carries in a single season yet. At 26 he should have some good years left in him..

If the Falcons can grab Matt Ryan in the draft, they'll have a top young quarterback and running back in an offense that last season had no legit threats.

Grade: A

More to come as some more big names find new homes and I get around to other moves that have already gone down.

Brady's place among the greatest ever is still unknown

by John Daly

Posted Saturday, January 19th, 2008

With both Tom Brady and Brett Favre among the final four starting quarterbacks vying for a Super Bowl ring and the possiblity of a Packers/Patriots match-up looming, debates over which quarterback will have the better place in history are raging.

The common argument for Brady being one of the greatest or even the greatest of all-time is his three Super Bowl championships and his calmness in the face of adversity. Detractors point to the genius of his head coach and the solid play all-around of the teams he has won with as having a lot to do with his postseason success.

For Favre, supporters say his gunslinger style, boyish personality and love of the game, and the countless records he has broken all make him the best ever, while critics point to his interceptions and failure to return to a Super Bowl since the 1997 season.

However, judging any player at any position, even one as important as quarterback, based on how many Super Bowls they have won is simply foolish. Whether or not a quarterback can win the big one depends entirely on the situation.

For example, when Favre and the Packers defeated New England in Super Bowl XXXI, Green Bay was ranked first in the NFL in both offense and defense. Though only one other future Hall of Famer, defensive end Reggie White, was on the team, the Packers had practically no weaknesses.

After Mike Sherman took over as general manager and coach, less emphasis was put on defense. The Packers would go on to have high-powered offenses virtually every season with defenses that could force turnovers, but were porous and gave up big plays regularly. Thus, Favre was often forced to win games on offense without support on the other side of the ball, leading to the team's demise.

Contrastingly, Brady has often played not to lose games.. He had the sixth best scoring defense in 2001, best in 2003, second best in 2004, and fourth best this season.

Basically, while Favre only had a two year window to win a championship, Brady's Patriots have been amongst the NFL's elite the last six out of seven seasons. While it'd be easy to give Brady all the credit as the quarterback, one can't deny that Bill Belichick knows how to build a dynasty.

This is not to suggest that Brady will not go down as one of the best ever. Clearly, he has distinguished himself as the best of his generation and has proved in 2007 that he is far more than the game manager many once believed him to be upon his arrival in the NFL.

 Every great QB needs a great team around him to win, and what has been said here applies to any dynasty QB in NFL history - Bradshaw, Montana, Aikman, you name them - not just Brady.

Simply put, I'm not saying Brady is not an MVP-worthy or future Hall of Fame player, I'm saying that players like Favre could also win three or four Super Bowls if the window of opportunity was there.

So, let's not rush into judgment on Brady in regards to where he ranks in the annals of football history. Every great player is tested sooner or later, and every dynasty falls. Brady has not faced much adversity so far in his career, and that's bound to change at some point.

Pro Bowl voting proves itself a joke once again

by John Daly

Posted Tuesday, December 18th, 2007

Jacksonville Jaguars halfback Fred Taylor is defying the odds in more than one way this season.

With a history of injury problems that allowed him to play a full season only twice in his nine year career, Taylor has played and started all 14 games for the Jags this season.

In addition, at age 31, he is breaking the well-established rule  that franchise halfbacks plummet downhill at age 30, to the tune of 5.1 yards per carry.

So then, it would make a whole lot of  sense for Taylor to be elected to his first career Pro Bowl this season. But, considering the history of Pro Bowl voting, it makes even more sense that he wasn't.

Taylor, whose Jags were completely shut out of the Pro Bowl despite being 10-4, was passed over yet again in favor of Pittsburgh's Willie Parker (4.1 yards per carry), Indianapolis' Joseph Addai, who has less yards and yards per carry than Taylor, and the more deserving LaDainian Tomlinson.

One can certainly make the case that both Parker and Addai have a place on the roster, but Taylor's year has clearly been more impressive.

But, of course, he's far from the only one left out in the cold.

In the NFC, Green Bay linebacker Nick Barnett, having what most observers would consider his best year to date, was left off of the team in favor of a rookie, San Francisco's Patrick Willis. Barnett's teammate, tight end Bubba Franks, was selected as a second alternate on the NFC team. The odd part? Franks is Green Bay's back-up tight end behind Donald Lee,  and has not caught a pass since Week 6. He has 90 yards on the season.

Perhaps the most ridiculous selection was that of former Redskins safety Sean Taylor, who was shot to death in his home in November. The gesture is nice, and yes, the Pro Bowl is basically meaningless in the end. But, can't we just elect deserving players and leave the tributes for stickers on the back of helmets? Doing it this way is almost embarrassing.

Nobody will suggest that any of these errors and omissions are anything new. The Pro Bowl always has been, and probably always will be, a complete joke. There always will be a big-name player well past his prime who makes it in over a future hall of famer in his best years. There will always be a Michael Vick making it in over a Matt Hasselbeck.

But for the love of everything that is sane and logical in this world, stop leaving out the Fred Taylors. A 10,000 yard, 60 touchdown running back is most likely going to retire having never been to a Pro Bowl. That's one heck of a snub, and one heck of a reason to fix this broken system, and take a third of the power away from the common NFL fan - It's for their own good.

NFL Week 14 Predictions

Posted Friday, December 7th, 2007

 

So here they are, Redzone Rush's first ever weekly picks.

We'll do a first set, which is against the spread and a second set which are my straight up picks.

Against the spread

Buffalo (-6.5) to cover against Miami

As I said in the power rankings, Buffalo has not beaten anyone with a winning record this year. But, the Dolphins lost to the Jets last week - Yes, the 3-9 Jets - by just under four touchdowns. The Dolphins are quite possibly the worst team in NFL history.

St. Louis (+6.5) to cover against Cincinnati

St. Louis seems to be getting hot, winning three of their last four, and I cannot see this flat-out bad Bengals team beating them by a full touchdown.

Dallas (-10.5) to cover against Detroit

The Lions are completely lost right now, and I would not be surprised to see this game turn out to be something similar to what we saw when the Eagles faced Detroit week 3.

Green Bay (-10.5) to cover against Oakland

I struggled with this one. Part of me thinks the Packers will be coming in after a letdown against Dallas in take out their frustration on the Raiders, the other part of me could see an improving Raiders team take this one down to the wire. I'll say that Ryan Grant and the Packers will run to a route.

Tampa Bay (-2.5) to cover against Houston

I was pretty shocked at how small the spread is in this one. Tampa Bay should have no problem with Houston's one-dimensional offense.

Carolina (+10.5) to cover against Jacksonville

Another battle between the big cats. Carolina has a top-half balanced defense, and I expect Vinny Testaverde to step up and have a big game against Jacksonville's terrible secondary.

Pittsburgh (+12.5) to cover against New England

Did I read that right? New England as double digit favorites against the best defense in the league? Pittsburgh is a far better team than both Baltimore and Philly, and they just saw what those teams did to almost beat the Pats.

New York Giants (+2.5) to cover against Philadelphia

Donovan McNabb returns this week, but is that really a good thing? The team was just as bad with him as they were without him. In fact, I'd guess that the Patriots game would not have been as close with McNabb in the fold.

San Diego (-1) to cover against Tennessee

I see LT and San Diego building momentum heading into the playoffs. It started last week with Kansas City, and will continue against Vince Young and the Titans.

Minnesota (-7.5) to cover against San Francisco

The Vikings seem to be the NFC version of the Chargers. They started out slowly but have now made themselves into a legit playoff contender. San Francisco is one of the year's biggest disappointments and i expect the Vikings rushing attack to have a field day against the Niners.

Arizona (+6.5) to cover against Seattle

The Cardinals are fighting to keep their playoff and possibly division title hopes alive. They will take their division rival to the edge this week.

Denver (-6.5) to cover against Kansas City

The Chiefs seem to be playing for a good draft pick lately while the Broncos are trying to hang onto whatever shred of playoff hopes they still have.

 Cleveland (-3.5) over the New York Jets

The Jets lose because of their struggles to adjust from playing a team as bad as the Dolphins to playing ... anybody else.

Indianaplois (-9.5) over Baltimore

The Ravens simply fell apart late in the Patriots game. This team does not seem to trust their coach anymore and they figure to have a top 5 draft pick. Peyton Manning will pick apart their mentally drained defense.

New Orleans (-4.5) over Atlanta

Another cause of a team that might have  slight chance of making the postseason against a team that is undoubtedly done. The Falcons have absolutely nothing on offense. .

Straight up

Buffalo 17

Miami 7

St. Louis 31

Cincinnati 21

Dallas 38

Detroit 17

Green Bay 31

Oakland 13

Tampa Bay 23

Houston 14

Jacksonville 20

Carolina 14

New England 28

Pittsburgh 24

New York Giants 24

Eagles 17

San Diego 31

Tennessee 17

Minnesota 34

San Francisco 14

Seattle 20

Arizona 17

Denver 24

Kansas City 16

Cleveland 35

New York Jets 21

Indianapolis 24

Baltimore 6

New Orleans 28

Atlanta 14

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